Euphoria Now. Aftermath Next? Are You Positioned?
Positioning Capital for the Transition Ahead
Tuesday | September 16, 12PM ET
Navigating the Blow-Off Top:
Signals, Risks, and How to Position for 2026
Crypto markets are flashing potential late-cycle signals:
- BTC pushing parabolic extensions potentially toward $125k-140K+
- ETH rotation driven by Wall Street and policy tailwinds
- Altcoin speculation growing
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Retail flows still not 100% here, but doesn't seem far away
As we enter the last stage of the parabola, the opportunity is real—but so is the risk. 2026 is likely to bring turbulence, dislocation, and a very different set of conditions than today’s melt-up.
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- As we enter the last stage of the parabola, the opportunity is real—but so is the risk. 2026 is likely to bring turbulence, dislocation, and a very different set of conditions than today’s melt-up.
We Aim for Excellence across Every Metric
Amphibian Unite
Our consortium of 159+ of the world’s leading Digital Assets Funds, Market Makers and Traders.
Assets Under Management
Projected as of 9/10/25) across our USD, BTC & ETH funds**
YTD Performance
Estimated YTD Returns for our USD Alpha Fund as of 9/5/25
GPs & Team Members
Across our various funds
GP/Team AUM experience
Combined we have managed this amount across multiple asset classes
*Our net performance estimate is derived from performance estimates from each underlying fund in our portfolio. As we do not have final official statements from all underlying funds, our estimated performance will be adjusted as we receive more official statements, but is our best estimate as of the time of this email. Note: this is based on an investor who invested since inception in our onshore feeder with a 2/20 fee structure and high water mark. Depending on your fee structure, feeder structure and timing of investment, it would differ your actual net performance.
**This figure is based on current estimates and is subject to change due to market fluctuations and other factors.
***The Digital Assets Awards are based on a no fee nomination which is vetted by The Digital Banker research team. All shortlisted firms are reviewed by an impartial panel of judges for the various award categories. Amphibian Capital has paid a fee for use of the award badge. The receipt of these awards is not indicative of future performance.
DATE & TIME:
Tuesday, September 16th at 12PM EST
DURATION:
55 minutes on Zoom
Link provided upon registration via email/text
Euphoria Now. Aftermath Next. Are You Positioned?
Crypto markets are flashing late-cycle signals:
~ BTC pushing parabolic extensions toward $140K+ ~
~ ETH rotation driven by tokenization and policy tailwinds ~
~ Altcoin speculation reaching euphoric peaks ~
~ Retail flows and memecoins igniting volatility ~
As we enter the last stage of the parabola, the opportunity is real—but so is the risk. 2026 is likely to bring turbulence, dislocation, and a very different set of conditions than today’s melt-up.
This is the moment where investor discipline matters most.
What We’ll Cover:
Reading Market Extremes: Euphoria vs. Structural Shifts
How to interpret price, policy, and flow signals—and why euphoric narratives often peak just before regime change.
Rotation Dynamics Across BTC, ETH & Alts
What capital flows and confluence indicators are showing—and how to position across majors, L2s, and speculative rotations.
Building Resilience for Post-2025 Volatility
How we’re hedging, harvesting, and positioning for 2026’s turbulence while capturing near-term upside.
Inside Amphibian’s Portfolio Adjustments for Q4
A preview of our latest manager allocations, risk overlays, and positioning shifts across BTC, ETH, and USD Alpha portfolios.
BTC on BTC Yield Live &
Pro-Forma Results*
Amphibian BTC Alpha Pro-Forma Net Performance Since 1/1/19: 171.54% (BTC on BTC)
*Pro forma performance, representing the average annualized performance from January 2019 through July 2023, net of all fees, for the portfolio of underlying funds that Amphibian Fund invested in beginning on August 1 2023, if the same portfolio had been fully invested as of January 2019 with no rebalancing. Please note each fund was added to the portfolio at a different time, and beginning on August 1, 2023 actual net fund performance is included. All underlying fund performance has been included from the date each fund was added to the portfolio. Note each underlying fund is the best estimate we have for the BTC share class. Not all were live as long as USD funds (so subtracted off funding costs etc for those time periods). This fund selection mirrors our latest ETH portfolio and a number of lessons from 13+ months of live data with that portfolio. In years prior to 2023, we’ve done our best to keep allocations to the max limits and adjust accordingly. Also know weightings over time would be slightly inaccurate as month on month weightings shift, depending on terms.
**Best projected estimate for July as of 9/5/25.
Amphibian Capital Thesis
It’s Simple…
- We are bullish on BTC & ETH over the next 5-10 years
- We expect volatility & inefficiency in the market to continue
- 10-20+ year target: 2-3x+ ETH, BTC and/or USD over this time period
- Current target: 2-4% net per quarter
See our performance by fund here:
YOUR WEBINAR HOSTS
MANAGING PARTNER &
CO-FOUNDER
Multiple Founder & Crypto Influencer. Finance @ UC Berkeley, in Crypto since ‘13. Helped Scale Fintech start-up MX.com from 2-28M users.
CFP(R) GENERAL PARTNER
& CO-FOUNDER
6+ years at Merrill Lynch, Runs $100M+ AUM Private Weath Management Practice, Crypto Investor since ‘14.
We will cover the latest in institutional flows, regulations, and market trends.
Make sure to tune in live for some critical insights, and there might be a surprise guest too.
Big Portfolio Moves, Bigger Decade Ahead
This Quarter’s Allocation = Your Next 10 Years
The Rebalancing Window is Now
Portfolio Strategy at a Decade-Shaping Crossroads
Decisions Today. Trajectory Through 2035.
From Chop to Clarity: Navigating the Inflection Point
Rotational Top? Or Generational Opportunity?
Miss This Window, Miss the Cycle
The Setup is Here. Are You Positioned?
Don’t Let the Market Move Without You
Wave 5 is Coming. Are You Allocated Right?
Download Our Latest Report:
$1M Bitcoin
+ Thesis Report
